STRATEGIC AUTONOMY WITHIN HEGEMONIC ALLIANCES: JAPAN'S PURSUIT OF INDEPENDENT DECISION-MAKING CAPACITY IN THE U.S.–JAPAN ALLIANCE FRAMEWORK

Abstract

This article examines how Japan is shaping and expanding its strategic autonomy within the framework of the U.S.–Japan alliance, one of the most consequential bilateral security partnerships in the contemporary Indo-Pacific. Drawing on the theoretical frameworks of vertical binding and horizontal binding (Simón & Klose, 2025), hedging (Sims & Chinfulli, 2025), and middle power typologies (Harijanto, 2023), the article argues that Japan is pursuing strategic autonomy not by distancing itself from its alliance with the United States, but by becoming a more capable, more indispensable, and more strategically relevant partner within that alliance. The article situates Japan’s strategic evolution within two major geopolitical drivers: the uncertainty introduced by the Trump administrations regarding U.S. alliance commitments, and the growing military challenge posed by China’s rapid modernization and regional assertiveness. Empirical evidence — including Japan’s unprecedented defense spending increases to 2% of GDP, its acquisition of counterstrike capabilities, the establishment of a new Joint Operations Command, and its expanding regional partnerships through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision — demonstrates that Japan’s pursuit of strategic autonomy is backed by substantial and historically unprecedented policy commitments. The article concludes that Japan’s experience offers important lessons for understanding how middle powers navigate the tension between security dependence and strategic independence in an era of intensifying great power competition.